| The Bush administration pretended to ignore last
year's organization summit, at which the members -- China, Russia,
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan -- called for the
United States to withdraw the troops it had stationed in Central Asia
for the war that toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan. But the
organization's foreign ministers meeting in Shanghai last week
discussed a plan to accept four new members: India, Pakistan,
Mongolia, and Iran. After that meeting, Russian foreign minister
Sergei Lavrov announced that Iran's belligerent President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad would be attending a summit meeting on June 15 in
Shanghai, along with the leaders of China, Russia, and the four
Central Asian member states. That should get the Bush administration's
attention. Acceptance of Iran by the organization at the very moment
when the Islamic Republic is defying the International Atomic Energy
Agency -- and when China and Russia are blocking US efforts to have
the United Nations Security Council approve sanctions on Iran --
suggests a tectonic shift in geopolitics. This is not merely a tactic
to enhance Chinese and Russian relations with Tehran. Nor is it simply
an annoying ploy to protect Iran as a seller of energy to China and a
buyer of nuclear plants and conventional weapons from Russia.
Bringing Iran into the organization portends a dramatic new stage
of strategic coordination between Russia and China. The purpose of
this collaboration is to give form to a common policy of resisting
what the governments in Beijing and Moscow have come to see as an
aggressive, overbearing America.
Ironically, this is precisely what President Bush has pledged to
prevent. The national security doctrine that Bush and Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice have proclaimed in public rests upon a
determination to discourage any combination of countries from mounting
a challenge to the United States. By building a military force so
awesome that no cluster of countries could even hope to match it --
and by demonstrating a willingness to stay clear of constraining
international treaties and obligations -- administration hardliners
planned to intimidate all potential challengers into meekly accepting
Washington's dictates.
But after five years of trial and error, it is clear that the Bush
doctrine is having the opposite effect. Instead of inciting awe and
submission, the policies associated with Vice President Dick Cheney
and other administration hawks are motivating countries in Eurasia,
the Middle East, and Latin America to seek channels for cooperation
against US hegemony.
Enlargement of the Shanghai grouping would be the most telling
collective response yet to the administration's often arrogant
attempts to have its way in the world. This is a prospect that should
induce Bush to reconsider the wisdom of his provocative doctrine.
The inclusion of new members envisaged by the organization's
foreign ministers would not only bring together major exporters of oil
and gas, Russia and Iran, with the fast-growing energy consumers China
and India. It would also make Iran a member of a regional security
organization that would include four other states that are established
nuclear powers.
Having Iran inside an expanded Shanghai Cooperation Organization
would only make Tehran's hardliners more impervious than they already
are to US and European efforts to deflect Iran from its pursuit of
nuclear weapons. And the enlarged organization would be a club
dominated by undemocratic states, India and Mongolia being the
exceptions. Russian officials, resentful of Western monitoring of
elections in states of the former Soviet sphere, have already crowed
about plans to have the organization conduct its own monitoring of
elections in that region.
It did not have to be this way. After Sept. 11, China and Russia
were eager to cooperate with Washington in deposing the Taliban regime
in Afghanistan and mounting a world-wide struggle against Al Qaeda and
affiliated groups. But Bush and Cheney have repeatedly acted as though
they could ignore the interests and sensitivities of their
counterterrorist partners without eventually provoking a negative
reaction. Cheney's recent tirade against Russia in Lithuania and
Bush's refusal to give China's President Hu Jintao the prestigious
state dinner he was known to want were recent examples of needless
offense. Russia and China may deserve criticism but should not be
driven into an alliance with Iran against the United States.
If there is a promising sign that the administration may be
learning a modicum of practical humility in foreign affairs, it is in
a plan to undertake negotiations on a peace treaty with North Korea as
an inducement for Pyongyang to trade away its nuclear program.
Conducting real give-and-take negotiations with smaller nations may
seem humbling for a superpower, but Bush did originally promise to
practice a humble statecraft. If he had done so, he would not have
turned so much of the world against America.
© Copyright 2006 Globe Newspaper Company.
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