Global Energy Crisis   

        We, the scientists, educators and student participators of the 2008 Juneau Ice-field Research Program (JIRP) are living and working in a vast frozen microcosm studying climactic change on one of the most sensitive glacial systems in the world.

This is the 63^rd consecutive year that this has been done. So far this field season we have learned once again how vitally important energy is to our program. It is not just a matter of convenience or comfort in this frigid high altitude world of ice and rock, energy to us is a matter of life and death. We use gasoline, kerosene, propane, camping fuel, wood, cardboard, and even sometimes coal. We use it for our helicopters, snow machines, stoves, generators, lights and lanterns. Since this summer so far has been the coldest, wettest, and cloudiest summer on record in Juneau (over 100 years), we were made very aware of our unique energy dependence as we waited nearly two weeks for a helicopter flight bringing us four 55 gallon barrels of fuel. Because of this critical delivery our research program moves forward.

            As we scan the 360^o horizon from Camp Nine on this one clear day, we cannot help but feel how important it is for us to relate to the world beyond the 123 mountain peaks dotting the horizon.  The solitude and this landscape gives us pause to consider just exactly what the global energy crisis is, the primary causes, and (most importantly) what can be done to solve it.

            Just what is the global energy crisis? The brilliant leader and founder of JIRP, Dr. Maynard M. Miller, often reminds us of the words of the former British Prime Minister when he said “Global warming is the greatest challenge facing the world today.” The energy crisis is global warming. But there is much more...
The energy crisis is like a polyhedron, having many faces. When you look at it from different angles you see another important aspect of this complex and difficult situation. While America's continued dependence on fossil fuels helps create global warming, there is much more to this dilemma we. Our energy sources and resources are finite, and "peak oil" is eminent. The world as a whole is inextricably tied to the use of fossil fuel sources, and until recently these issues have escaped the attention of the mass media and general populace.

            Looking beyond environmentalism for the moment, we see that the energy crisis involves a shortage of available and inexpensive energy for public consumption. However it is clear that energy itself is abundant. Incredible amounts of solar energy stream down to mother earth every second. When we considering winds, waves, geothermal potentials, and nuclear resources – the earth is teeming with energy. Can we convert and deliver this energy to the public? This is the key question of the day.  A critical portion of the energy crisis has to do with the logistics of conversion.
We must unravel the mechanics of energy conversion and delivery in an earth-friendly way.  And it must be soon.

This page is under construction....

          tmf

            Just like our our two burner stove at Camp Nine heats our grilled tuna sandwiches, the earth heats up when more energy enters than leaves. These are the mechanisms of global warming (GW) simply put. But there is more to GW than temperature increases, polar ice melts, permafrost thaws, and the recession of glaciers and ice caps.  During our expedition, we have documented continued negative mass balances with our measurements here on the Juneau Ice-field since the 1970’s. We have evidence of drastic changes in weather patterns, global air circulation paths, ocean currents and storms of all kinds and ferocity. Could these seeming anomalies also be a part of Global Warming? The crowd of people screaming “Yes they are!” is getting larger and larger. We think now that our potential for global food and water supply is directly related to future energy production.  Mathematically, there are correlations between energy use, economic predictors, GNP, and standards of living.

            All of the Ice-field researchers, as we look today... 15 miles across the Taku Glacier at the magnificent Taku Towers, agree that we have some moral responsibility to share our discoveries regarding mother earth. Unless people begin to think globally, energy use will probably continue to rise at the historic constant of 3 to 4% annually. Physics Professor Emeritus Al Bartlett pointed out in his 1978 American Journal of Physics article, The Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis that exponential Growth in world energy use, like any compounding effect, creates an associated "doubling time." From simple calculus we find that this doubling time is seventy years divided by the annually percentage growth rate. Looking at any graph of world energy use, we can easily see that our use of finite resources is doubling every twenty years. WOW! This means that the world will use twice as much energy in 2020 as the world used in 2000 (if nothing changes). Optimistic experts expected the growth of energy use and CO₂ production to taper off in this new millennium, but they were wrong. Countries with rapidly-growing economies like China, India, Brazil, Russia and others have offset the modest reductions in energy growth for America and Europe.

            Studies and reports show that world energy use continues to grow in 2008 at the historic rate of 3-4% annually. Dr. Bartlett correctly points out that more energy will be used in the single doubling period from 2000 to 2020 than in the entire time period before the beginning of the third millennium! This is a supply problem of colossal proportions. Can we meet this challenge? We have no choice. We must. Peace and the well-being of all of us who inhabit this round rock called earth must depends on our capacity for ecological redemption..

            Pessimists say this is impossible. They predict doom, war and famine. This reminds me of a learning situation in my youth.  During a  mountain climbing expedition, my partner and I decided to climb the First Flat Iron above Boulder Colorado without a rope. This sort of risk is  something I would not recommend and we absolutely will not allow on the JIRP expeditions. Nearing the top of the Flatiron, we had only 100’ to go but the difficulty seemed to exceed our strength and ability. I was clinging to the tiniest of holds and shaking from fatigue. I shouted to my partner up top, “I don’t think I can make it.” He said, “Well can you go down?” After due consideration my reply was “NO!” My friend wisely counseled, “If you cannot retreat, you must simply go forward.” This gave me the courage to reach the top of that cliff.  That courage was produced by resolve and ACTION. Moving forward towards a solution to the energy crisis and the problem of global warming- will require unified global courage and immediate ACTION.

 

  Coincidently, ACTION is the key point in the Emersonian Triangle, the emblem of the philosophy
of the JIRP program. The Emersonian Triangle is displayed on the JIRP logo and Dr. Miller has discussed its philosophy with over 4000 participants over these 60 plus years. The Emersonian
Triangle was originally conceived in the writing of Ralph Waldo Emerson’s classic essay,
The American Scholar. In this essay Emerson writes that true understanding and learning only come about by studying past knowledge as recorded in BOOKS, and using this knowledge to study NATURE (OUR GREATEST TEACHER) through the appropriate use of ACTION. Thus, in group discussion on this subject of crisis and ACTION, the 2008 JIRP participants have learned from Emerson and Dr. Miller that we must accept this challenge and call to ACTION. We must spread the knowledge of GW that we gain from our daily work in research and lectures, spreading our new understanding of the nature of the energy crisis and its subset GW beyond the 123 peaks visible on the horizon this afternoon.



            The ACTION of thousands of participants educated, inspired and motivated by Dr. Miller, his late spouse Joan Miller are akin to the crossing of this great Ice-field by a flock of geese flying through the
air.  Each bird leaves a small wake behind it, yet together the group wake is large. These robust flyers are impressive in their formation and their combined wake produces less drag symbiotically on the whole
gaggle, which results in faster and easier passage towards their goal.

            When we complete our summers work and leave this fabulous island universe to return to normal life in the “regular world”, we will all be asked questions like “What is happening to the glaciers?” and
“Is global warming caused by man or is it just another natural oscillation in climate?” We are now better equipped to go into ACTION and explain the answers to these and many other questions.

            First, what is happening to the glaciers? We have hard evidence they are melting and receding. There are occasional exceptions, such is the case of the mighty Taku Glacier, which forms the heart of our Ice field. The Taku is advancing and tomorrow we will once again use our extremely accurate GPS systems to measure its slow march across the Taku Inlet. This advance, which has in the past blocked the Taku River and created massive downstream flooding towards Juneau, does NOT indicate any uncertainty regarding global warming. In fact, this advance confirms the process of Global Warming and its impact on the Juneau Ice-field. The Taku Glacier gets its nourishment from high altitude flows from large snowfields called neves. As warming proceeds, the freezing level rises.  Since snowfall is always heaviest at 500’ below to 1000’ above the freezing leve, it is global warming which paradoxically increases the upper portions of the Taku Glacier. This is verified through mass-balance measurements obtained by hand-digging test pits in the firn (snow) up to a depth of five meters on average. Once in 1998, at the highest neve of the Taku Glacier system, we dug a test pit tenmeters deep in order to find the bottom of the previous winter’s snowfall. Digging a test pit by hand and shovel this deep is equivalent to lifting 80,000 pounds 20 feet into the air.  This arduous task is done bit by bit, daily, by mass-balance teams every year. This is the only way we can unlock the secrets of the glacier. Equally important is the work of the survey team. They use extremely accurate GPS equipment to measure the flow velocity of the glaciers all across the ice-field.  Although they have not found significant velocity changes over the years, their measurements can be used to determine the “flow lag” of the glacier.  Because of flow lag, where an increase in accumulation will take years to reach the lower portions of the glacier, the current advance may additionally result from heavy accumulations during cold periods from natural weather cycles some years ago. We can conclude this is because every year the mass balance team measures the annual snowfall all across the Ice field and converts it to a total water equivalent added to or lost from the glacier. This is called the mass balance of the glacier, a measure like the balance in a savings account according to a yearly ledger.  Even with this increased winter snowfall at higher elevations, the mass balance of the Taku has been negative for many years and the trend is increasing.

            Finally, we have found that the glaciers on the Juneau Ice-field are no longer dominated by their historic response to natural climactic variations such as solar energy changes due to sunspot cycles, orbital perturbations and other natural solar influences. For most of us in our own lives, the sun is brighter and dimmer through time in accordance with natural sun cycles. These natural effects have moved the Arctic Front onshore and offshore causing natural glacial advances and retreats since the Little Ice Age ended around 1600AD. During the Little Ice Age there was a recorded lull in solar activity with a recorded period of minimum sunspot sightings for 300 years. Now, however, since the 1970’s... the glaciers no longer seem to be following these natural influences but are simply being dominated by the effect of atmospheric pollution which has caused warming, melting and the resultant recession of the 100+ outlet glaciers from the Juneau Ice-field. Every year extremely accurate GPS measurements show a thinning over the entire Ice-field of from 3 to 10 meters. At high altitudes where there is more snowfall, there is evidence for even greater melting (ablation) resulting in continuing negative total mass balances. The story is the same around the world.
The ice is disappearing. The alarming fact is that this is NOT A LINEAR OR CONSTANT process, it is a process described mathematically as EXPONENTIAL! This rapidly growing melt is what is happening to our glaciers. This threatens not only polar bears and seals.... it also threatens the human species.

            We have also learned how to answer the question of whether GW is caused by man. Even thirty years ago this question was hotly debated by scientists and atmospheric computer modelers. Computer models predicting future climate were in their infancy and computers themselves were to weak to tackle such an enormous task. We now have very advanced climate models and huge lightning-fast computers that are up to the task. We have space-based satellite monitoring of the energy flow into and out of the earth. We have a global network of temperature-monitoring stations in the air, on land, and floating on the seas around the world. Millions of gigabytes of data constantly flow in for analysis. And what is the answer? The earth is getting hot and mankind is the culprit. We are addicted to burning. We burn fossil fuels, forests, and garbage even in our burn pits near our camps on the Juneau Ice field.   

            Over these thirty years there have been numerous international studies by groups of distinguished scientists, many documented in the books and reports on the shelves of the library/lecture rooms in our main camps on the Ice-field. The highest honor in the world, the Nobel Prize, has been bestowed on Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the work on the most recent major study on the subject. All these studies say the same thing – GW is here and we are the cause. In the June 3, 2005 issue of SCIENCE (available online at www.sciencemag.org) another group of international scientists (James Hansen, et al) published a landmark summary of these studies entitled EARTH’S ENERGY IMBALANCE: CONFIRMATION AND IMPLICATIONS (page 1431). The world press called this the final answer to the question of whether  GW was anthropogenic or natural. The abstract to this article is quoted here:

       Our climate model. Driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 watts
       per square meter more energy from the sun than it is emitting into space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over
       the past ten years.  Implications include (i) the expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6^oC without further change in atmospheric composition;
       (ii) the confirmation of the climate system’s LAG IN RESPONDING TO FORCINGS, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of
       climate change: and (iii) the likelihood of ACCELERATION of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.

             Of course, the fact is that the composition of the atmosphere is changing and for the worse. MOST TROUBLING OF ALL , previous computer models have shown that our climate responds to the addition of greenhouse gases about TWENTY YEARS AFTER these gases are infused into the air. Hansen et al has shown that this atmospheric LAG is real. This is so troubling because it appears as if the drastic changes we see on the Juneau Ice-field and elsewhere around the world, particularly in the high polar regions, ARE DUE TO GREENHOUSE GASES EMITTED TWENTY YEARS AGO! Since then, world energy use has doubled and the resulting emissions of these gases has drastically increased.

            If some find this article less than persuasive, an investigation of the research concerning the “Earth’s Carbon Cycle,” can be Googled... to elicit 5,290,000 hits. From this search, or by looking in any number of text books covering the subject, find a picture display or numeric table summarizing the movement of carbon into and out of the various carbon sinks in our environment. The largest store of carbon is in the limestone rock in the Earth’s mantle. There is plenty of carbon in the ocean and a bit less in dirt, trees, other plants, the air and clouds. Carbon in its many chemical forms flows like a system of rivers and creeks - from one sink to another and then back again – always in equilibrium throughout most of the geologic time comprising Earth’s history.  Occasionally and a periodically over this great epoch of time, this equilibrium has been “momentarily” upset by events such as volcanic activity, meteoritic collisions creating dust clouds, and even events not yet fully understood. This carbon imbalance could be the cause of past ice ages and mass species extinctions. Yet the mighty forces of nature, many of which remain mysterious, are often referred to by Dr. Miller as the greatest teacher of all here on the Ice field.  These natural forces seem to be able to correct imbalances when disturbed. But this corrective process seems to have been abrogated in recent years.

            The anthropogenic flow of carbon within this long held equilibrium state has only begun in a relative “microsecond” of geologic time, since the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the early 1800’s.Since then mankind’s production of CO₂ has steadily grown, not exactly exponentially, but following close behind the constant exponential pace of world energy growth. Looking at the present day carbon cycle picture of fluxes, and we see that today man’s flux is as yet, comparable to the size of some of natural flux cycles.  But the problem is that mankind’s production of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases is ever-growing, while the natural fluxes remain cyclic and occur in relatively fixed and predictable sequences as dictated by natural processes. Our atmospheric pollution is upsetting these natural balances, and our instruments and computers have documented this reality. Those who have seen Al Gore’s The Inconvenient Truth know that he had to use a power lift to get to the top of the CO₂ curve on the screen. Nature is screaming at us, calling for universal action. Fortunately, the vast majority of scientists and a majority of our people on this planet are listening... and HEARING NATURE'S CALL.

            It is fortunate too that the 2008 Mass balance team has energy and shelter as they return from digging a ten foot deep test pit on the Demorest Glacier. The sodden clouds have once again surrounded our home base at Camp Nine. Five test pit diggers... wet, cold and hungry... have come to this 9’ by 12’ two-story plywood and sheet metal hut for comfort, shelter rest and food. The camp fuel powering our faithful
two-burner stove has canned beef stew and macaroni on one burner and hot water for tea on the other. These things are not what put the smiles on their faces, although they certainly help. Our smiles, energy and laughter come from spirit and courage inspired by ACTION. This effervescent spirit is the greatest source for the energies required to complete this vital GW research effort. If only we could tap this human resource worldwide, we could put the brakes on the mess called the energy crisis. Despite those who have reservations, or are in denial... we can!  But only through continued education, globally-applied will ACTION set us on a path towards real solutions.

            The search for this path forward dominated our group discussions at Camp 10 a few days ago. Solutions are not easily found and they are fraught with controversy. Since we have been living in isolation from TV, radio and newspapers it was only through the old-fashioned way that news traveled concerning Al Gore’s new and bold plans. The helicopter pilot who brought us the four barrels of gas told us. Al Gore has the courage and is taking ACTION like no other human. We must, as he suggests, eliminate coal as a source of electricity in the US within the next in ten years.  Another idea which came to our group mind was population growth. The fact that this growth has never diminished, led us to believe that population growth and its consequences and stresses on mother earth will continue. The most we can do is to explore realistic ways to deal with it. Global education and a united front may be our best hope. We must not put this “on the back burner.” More immediate problems like fossil-fuel dependence and "peak oil" must be dealt with immediately.

            We have the ability, technology and motivation to develop all types of renewable energy resources. One advantage of the recent dramatic escalation in the price of energy, especially oil, is that now for the first time these alternative energy resources are truly cost effective. Solar, wind, geothermal, wave and even nuclear sources must all be utilized in order to achieve the vision and hopes for renewed sources of energy. All of these energy sources have their own disadvantages and environmental challenges. However, our group has mostly agreed that we must no longer quibble and waste valuable time discussing and studying these matters. We must proceed with an Apollo-like program, in the words of Vice President Al Gore, to "get them online as fast as possible" and possibly within his ten-year goal.

            Conservation, we all agree, is a fantastic and under-utilized resource. Conservation and increased supply from green, carbon free sources are integral parts of a solution for our future. Higher energy costs
mean that conservation is even more sensible than in the past. Mr. Gore is right, we need to focus our efforts on the largest sources of CO₂, which are the energy sectors of transportation and electric power production. Clean coal combustion and carbon sequestration are laudable goals, but they require more immediate implementation. Perhaps the vocal NASA scientist James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, is right when he says that we cannot solve GW unless we immediately ban the future construction of coal-fired power plants. This ban could only end when clean coal combustion and carbon sequestration are capable of going online. The implementation of nuclear generation, which now produces 20% of our electricity in America, is inevitable. Growth in the nuclear sector is ongoing globally, and even here in the USA. Nuclear plants are large centralized sources of electricity which can replace coal-fired plants one for one, and the nuclear plant produces no carbon emissions whatsoever, make it particularly attractive. Public education on the subjects of the recent advancements in reactor design, advance in safety ofoperation, proliferation resistant designs, and nuclear waste management ideas will be essential if we hope to mitigate public mistrust regarding this vital energy source. A group of inventors in Seattle, sponsored in part by Microsoft, have recently found that a nuclear reactor can be powered by nuclear waste!

            All new green energy sources must be put in place quickly as we overcome individual problems. New energy transportation systems will be required – pipelines carrying hydrogen and natural gas, electrical transmission lines and the like. In creating new energy movement corridors, we cannot “bite our own tail” by forgetting about environmental concerns. They must be minimized while realizing that they cannot and will not be completely eliminated. Only doing nothing, which we have done for so long, will eliminate them. But doing nothing will certainly lead to global disaster.

The pessimists within our group came out when the subject of lifestyle change was raised. One participant stated that our lifestyles must change.  A change towards simpler, less convenient, less consumptive and generally a less ostentatious lifestyles and standards of living. I replied, being the eternal optimist, that I feel it is possible to achieve equality in lifestyle worldwide in spite of the current crisis. History has shown that we have never gone backwards, except in times of war and economic disaster. In the long run, history will never reverse itself.  It won’t happen because we will not let it happen. No one seemed to agree. We voted and I lost by a significant margin. Will the pessimists win or can we meet our challenge through global ACTION? Only father time knows.

Well, it is time to leave lovely Camp Nine once more. Like the swallows migration to Capistrano, we come here once a year to do our critically important work. Last night the clouds came back in and the visibility was down to the usual ten feet. JIRPer’s call it “living inside the ping pong ball.” This is an apt namet. Then, in the brief night, the stars came out and sunrise broke. I was amazed at the sight of the rising sun slightly east of north.  When morning came out came our 123 peaks on the horizon energized and renewed us for the next day’s task.

Now for one last cup of soup before I catch up with the other five mass-balancers who are skiing up-glacier to their next destination at Camp 18. They are now mere dots on the distant white sheet of snow called the Mathes Glacier. Oh NO, our trusty 2 burner stove has just run out of fuel and the pot is still full of snow to be melted for soup! The two gallons of fuel we brought to Camp Nine has run out. There must be more fuel around somewhere. I need it for comfort and sustenance. Should I search for the last emergency supply, or should I save the last bit of fossil fuel for future use? I decide to disregard my concerns about the future and sure enough, there is another gallon under the bunk in an old and filthy trunk. What a blessing this last 150 million joules of energy will be.

Should I use it now or should I save this last drop for the future? Oh heck, I wanted my soup so I refueled the stove and enjoyed soup along with the last of the tuna on a piece of Pilot bread. Was this fuel shortage at Camp Nine a coincidence or another lesson in life to be learned on the Ice-field? These are lessons that each JIRP participant is morally required to carry to tell the rest of the world. I justified my decision, knowing that the helicopter will bring more fuel. I heard so on my radio in a call from Camp 8 to Camp 18.

But where is the Earth’s helicopter? Can we create it by our united ACTION?  Only time will tell. Here on the Juneau Ice-field we endure hardship. We get cold, wet, hungry, tired and then the next day we are in the Ping Pong Ball again. As I write this closing paragraph, the Ping Pong Ball has descended on Camp Nine. Oh well, I have a snow machine full of fossil fuel and a GPS . As a result of the tremendous stress, hardship and backbreaking work, we JIRPer’s sometimes feel a bit of despair and every now and again.  But then you hear someone say-

  “I’m sick and tired of this – I am never coming back”. And then after a slight pause they say – “Until next year!”

  The call of the Juneau Ice-field, the camaraderie of our new-found, life-long friends and the vital importance of our research will bring us back.

So goodbye Camp Nine for one more year. I look forward to comfort and nourishment again in 2009. Off into the Ping Pong Ball again.

Written by:                                           August 4,5,6 2008

William A. (TOBY) DITTRICH       3301 G Street       Vancouver, Wa 98663

 Upon completing this essay in digital form on August 15,2008- Camp Nine was 30^oF snowing with gusts of wind to 80 MPH     

                        Camp Nine Looking Northwest

Camp Nine Looking South  My writing tablet with essay on the Rocks

 Environmental Danger