|
 We, the scientists, educators and
students, who participated in the 2008 Juneau Icefield Research Program (JIRP) are living and working in a
vast frozen microcosm studying climactic change on one of the most
sensitive glacial systems in the world.
This is the 63rd consecutive year that
this has been done. So far this field season we have learned once again
how vitally important energy is to our program. It is not just a matter
of convenience or comfort in this frigid high altitude world of ice and
rock, energy to us is a matter of life and death. We use gasoline,
kerosene, propane, camping fuel, wood, cardboard, and even sometimes
coal. We use it for our helicopters, snow machines, stoves, generators,
lights and lanterns. Since this summer so far has been the coldest,
wettest, and cloudiest summer on record in Juneau (over 100 years), we
were made very aware of our unique energy dependence as we waited nearly
two weeks for a helicopter flight bringing us four 55 gallon barrels of
fuel. Because of this critical delivery our research program moves
forward.
As we scan the 360o horizon from Camp Nine on this one
clear day, we cannot help but feel how important it is for us to relate to
the world beyond the 123 mountain peaks dotting the horizon. The
solitude and this landscape gives us pause to consider just exactly
what the global energy crisis is, the primary causes, and (most importantly) what can
be done
to solve it.
Just what is the global energy crisis? The brilliant leader and
founder of JIRP, Dr. Maynard M. Miller, often reminds us of the words of the former British Prime
Minister when he said “Global warming is the greatest challenge facing the
world today.” The energy crisis is global warming. But there is much
more...
The energy crisis is like a polyhedron, having many
faces. When you look at it from different angles you see another important
aspect of this complex and difficult situation. While America's continued
dependence on fossil fuels helps create global warming, there is much
more to this dilemma we are facing. Our energy sources and resources are finite, and
"peak oil" is eminent. The world as a whole is
inextricably tied to the use of fossil fuel sources, and until recently
these issues have escaped the attention of the mass media and general
populace.
Looking beyond environmentalism for the moment, we see that the
energy crisis involves a shortage of available and inexpensive energy for
public consumption. However it is clear that energy itself is
abundant. Incredible amounts of solar energy stream down to mother earth
every second. When we considering winds, waves, geothermal potentials, and nuclear
resources –
the earth is teeming with energy. Can we convert and deliver
this energy to the public? This is the key question of the day. A
critical portion of the energy crisis has to do with the logistics of
conversion.
We must unravel and deliver more "earth- friendly" thermodynamic
methods. And these solutions must happen soon.
Just like our our two burner stove at Camp Nine heats our grilled tuna sandwiches, the earth heats up when more energy enters than leaves.
Simply put, this is the mechanism of global warming (GW). But
there is more to GW than temperature increases, polar ice melts,
permafrost thaws, and the recession of glaciers and ice caps. During
our expedition, we have documented continued negative mass balances with
our measurements here on the Juneau Icefield since the 1970’s. This has provided evidence of drastic changes in
weather patterns, global air circulation paths, ocean currents and storms
of all kinds and ferocity. Could these seeming anomalies also be a part of Global
Warming? The crowd of
people screaming “Yes they are!” is getting larger and larger. We think now
that our potential for
global food and water supply is directly related to future
energy production. Mathematically,
there are correlations between energy use, economic predictors, GNP, and standards of living.
All of the icefield researchers, as we look today... 15 miles across
the Taku Glacier at the magnificent Taku Towers, agree that we have some moral responsibility to
share our discoveries regarding mother earth. Unless people begin to think
globally, energy use will probably
continue to rise at the historic constant of 3 to 4%
annually. Physics Professor Emeritus Al Bartlett pointed out in his 1978
American Journal of Physics article, The Forgotten Fundamentals of
the Energy Crisis that exponential Growth in
world energy use, like any compounding effect, creates an associated
"doubling time." From simple calculus we find that this doubling time is
seventy years divided by the annually percentage growth rate. Looking at any
graph of world energy use, we can easily see that our use of finite
resources is doubling
every twenty years. WOW! This means that the
world will use twice as much energy in 2020 as the world used in 2000 (if
nothing changes). Optimistic ex perts expected the growth of energy use and
CO2 production to taper off in this new millennium, but they were
wrong. Countries with rapidly-growing economies like China, India, Brazil,
Russia and others have offset the modest reductions in energy growth for
America and Europe.
Studies and reports show that world energy use continues to grow in
2008 at the historic rate of 3-4% annually. Dr. Bartlett correctly
points out that more
energy will be used in the single doubling period from 2000 to 2020 than
in the entire time period before the beginning of the third millennium!
This is a supply problem of colossal proportions. Can we meet
this challenge? We have no choice. We must. Peace and the well-being of
all of us who inhabit this round rock called earth will depend on our
capacity for ecological redemption...
Pessimists say this is impossible. They predict doom, war and
famine. This reminds me of a learning situation in my youth. During
a mountain
climbing expedition, my partner and I decided to climb the First Flat Iron
above Boulder Colorado without a rope. This sort of risk is something I would
not recommend and we absolutely will not allow on the JIRP
expeditions. Nearing the top of the Flatiron, we had only 100’ to go but
the difficulty seemed to exceed our strength and ability. I was clinging to
the tiniest of holds and shaking from fatigue. I shouted to my partner up top, “I don’t think I can make it.” He said, “Well can you go
down?” After due consideration my reply was “NO!” My friend wisely
counseled, “If you cannot retreat, you must simply go forward.” This
gave me the courage to reach the top of
that cliff. That courage was produced by resolve and
ACTION.
Moving forward towards a solution to the energy crisis and the problem of global warming-
will require unified global courage
and immediate ACTION.
Coincidently, ACTION is the key point in the Emersonian Triangle, the emblem of
the philosophy
of the JIRP program.
The Emersonian
Triangle is displayed
on the JIRP logo and Dr. Miller has discussed its philosophy with over
4000 participants over these 60 plus years. The Emersonian
Triangle was
originally conceived in the writing of Ralph Waldo Emerson’s classic essay,
The
American Scholar. In this essay Emerson writes that true understanding
and learning only come about by studying past knowledge as recorded in
BOOKS, and using this knowledge to study NATURE (OUR GREATEST TEACHER)
through the appropriate use of ACTION. Thus, in group discussion on this
subject of crisis and ACTION, the 2008 JIRP participants have learned from
Emerson and Dr. Miller that we must accept this challenge and call to
ACTION. We must spread the knowledge of GW that we gain from our daily
work in research and lectures. We must proactively share our new understanding of the
nature of the energy crisis (and its subset GW) beyond the 123 peaks visible
on the horizon this afternoon.
Thousands of participants
have been educated, inspired and motivated by Dr. Miller and his late spouse Joan.
The ACTION precipitated by these students and researchers is akin to the crossing of this great
icefield by a flock of
geese flying through the
air.
Each bird leaves a small wake behind it, yet together the
group wake is large. These robust flyers
are impressive in their formation
and their combined wake
produces less drag symbiotically on the
whole
gaggle, which results in faster and
easier passage towards their goal.
When we complete our summer's work and leave this fabulous island
universe to return to normal life in the “regular world”, we will all
be asked questions like “What is happening to the glaciers?” and
“Is
global warming caused by man or is it just another natural oscillation in
climate?” We are now better equipped to go into ACTION and explain the
answers to these and many other questions.
First, what is happening to the glaciers? We have hard evidence
they are melting and receding. There are occasional exceptions, such is the case
of the mighty Taku Glacier, which forms the heart of
our Ice field. The Taku is advancing and tomorrow we will once again use
our extremely accurate
GPS
systems to measure its slow march across the Taku Inlet. This advance,
which has in the past blocked the Taku River and created massive
downstream flooding towards Juneau, does NOT indicate any uncertainty
regarding global warming. In fact, this advance
confirms the process of Global Warming and its
impact on the Juneau Icefield. The Taku Glacier gets its
nourishment from flows which come from large high-altitude snowfields called neves. As warming proceeds, the freezing level rises.
Since snowfall
is always heaviest at 500
foot below to 1000 foot above the freezing level, it is
global warming which paradoxically increases snowfall on the upper portions of the Taku Glacier. This is
verified through mass-balance measurements obtained by hand-digging
test pits in the firn (snow) up to a depth of five meters on average. Once in
1998, at the highest neve of the Taku Glacier system, we dug a test pit
ten meters deep in order to find the bottom of the previous winter’s
snowfall. Digging a test pit by hand and shovel this deep is equivalent to
lifting 80,000 pounds 20 feet into the air. This arduous task is done
bit by bit, daily, by mass-balance teams every year. This is the only way we can
unlock the secrets of the glacier. Equally important is the work of the
survey team. They use extremely accurate
GPS
equipment to measure the flow velocity of the glaciers all across the
icefield. Although they have
not found significant velocity changes over the years, their measurements
can be used to determine the “flow lag” of the glacier.
Because of flow lag, where an increase in accumulation will take
years to reach the lower portions of the glacier, the current advance
may additionally result from heavy accumulations during cold periods from natural
weather cycles some years ago. We can conclude this is because
every year the mass balance team measures the annual snowfall all across
the Ice field and converts it to a total water equivalent added to or lost
from the glacier. This "mass balance" of the glacier, is a
measure like the balance in a savings account according to a yearly
ledger.
Even with increased winter snowfall at higher elevations, the mass balance of
the Taku has been negative for years and the trend is increasing.
Finally, we have found
that the glaciers on the Juneau Icefield are
no longer dominated by their historic response to natural climactic
variations such as solar energy changes due to sunspot cycles, orbital
perturbations and other natural solar influences. For most of us in our
own lives, the sun is brighter and dimmer through time in accordance with
natural sun cycles. These natural effects have moved the Arctic
Front onshore and offshore causing natural glacial advances and retreats
since the Little Ice Age ended around 1600AD. During the Little Ice Age there was a
recorded lull in solar activity with a recorded period of minimum sunspot
sightings for 300 years. Now, however, since the 1970’s... the glaciers no
longer seem to be following these natural influences but are simply being
dominated by the effect of atmospheric pollution which has caused warming,
melting and the resultant recession of the 100+ outlet glaciers from the
Juneau Icefield. Every year extremely accurate
GPS
measurements show a thinning over the entire icefield of from 3 to 10
meters. At high altitudes where there is more snowfall, there is evidence
for even
greater melting (ablation) resulting in continuing negative total
mass balances. The story is the same around the world.
The ice is
disappearing. The alarming fact is, reduction in the size of the glacier is NOT A LINEAR OR CONSTANT
process. The glaciers are shrinking at an accelerating pace. This
increasing melt threatens
not only polar bears and seals.... it also threatens the human species.
We have also
learned how to answer the question of whether GW
is caused by man. Even thirty years ago this question was hotly debated
by scientists and atmospheric computer modelers.
At that time, computer models predicting future climate were in their infancy and
computers themselves were to weak to tackle such an enormous task. We now
have very advanced climate models and huge lightning-fast computers that
are up to the task. We have space-based satellite monitoring of the energy
flow into and out of the earth. We have a global network of temperature-monitoring stations in the air, on land, and floating on the seas around
the world. Millions of gigabytes of data constantly flow in for analysis.
And what is the answer? The earth is getting hot and mankind is the
culprit. We are addicted to burning. Burning fossil fuels, forests, and
garbage increases air pollution The solution to the problems
associated with global warming, pollution, and the degenerative effects
upon our ecosphere... is for all of us to take personal responsibility for
our planet.
Over the past thirty years there have been numerous international
studies by groups of distinguished scientists, many
documented in the books and reports on the shelves of the library/lecture
rooms in our main camps on the icefield. The highest honor in the world, the Nobel Prize,
was bestowed
upon Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their work
on the most recent major study on the topic. All these studies say the
same thing – GW is here and
| ↑
Camp Nine Looking South with my writing tablet
& this essay on the Rocks |
we are the cause. In the June 3, 2005 issue
of SCIENCE (available online at www.sciencemag.org)
another group of international scientists (James Hansen,
et al) published
a landmark summary of these studies entitled EARTH’S ENERGY
IMBALANCE: CONFIRMATION
AND
IMPLICATIONS (page 1431).
The world press called this the final
answer to the question of whether GW
was anthropogenic or natural. The abstract to this article is quoted here:
Our climate model. Driven
mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings,
calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 watts per square meter more energy from the sun than it is emitting into
space. This
imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat
content over the past ten years.
Implications include (i) the expectation
of additional global warming of about 0.6oC without
further change in
atmospheric composition;
(ii) the confirmation of
the climate system’s LAG IN RESPONDING TO FORCINGS,
implying the need
for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level
of climate change: and (iii) the likelihood of
ACCELERATION of ice sheet
disintegration and sea level rise.
Of
course, the fact is that the composition of the atmosphere is changing and
for the worse. MOST TROUBLING OF
ALL
, previous computer models have shown that our climate responds to the
addition of greenhouse gases about TWENTY YEARS AFTER these gases are
infused into the air. Hansen et al has shown that this atmospheric LAG is
real. This is so troubling because it appears as if the drastic changes we
see on the Juneau Icefield and elsewhere around the world, particularly in
the high polar regions, ARE DUE TO GREENHOUSE GASES EMITTED TWENTY YEARS
AGO! Since then, world energy use has doubled and gas
emissions have drastically increased.
If some find the Hansen article less than persuasive, an investigation of
the research concerning the “Earth’s Carbon Cycle,” can be "Googled" to
elicit more than 5,290,000 hits. From this search, or by looking in any number of
text books covering the subject, find a picture display or numeric table
summarizing the movement of carbon into and out of the various carbon
sinks in our environment. The largest store of carbon is in the limestone
rock in the Earth’s mantle. There is plenty of carbon in the ocean and
a bit less in dirt, trees, other plants, the air and clouds. Carbon in its
many chemical forms flows like a system of rivers and creeks - from one
sink to another and then back again – always in equilibrium throughout
most of the geologic time comprising Earth’s history.
Occasionally and aperiodically over this great epoch of time, this
equilibrium has been “momentarily” upset by events such as volcanic
activity, meteoritic collisions creating dust clouds, and even events not
yet fully understood. This carbon imbalance could be the cause of past
ice ages and mass species extinctions. Yet the mighty forces of nature,
many of which remain mysterious, are often
referred to by Dr. Miller as the greatest teacher of all here on the Ice field.
These natural forces seem
to be able to correct imbalances when disturbed. But this corrective
process seems to have been abrogated in recent years.
The anthropogenic flow of carbon within this long held equilibrium
state has only begun in a relative “microsecond” of geologic time,
since the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the early 1800’s.Since
then mankind’s production of CO2 has steadily grown, not
exactly exponentially, but following close behind the constant exponential
pace of world energy growth. Looking at the present day carbon cycle picture
of fluxes, and we see that today man’s flux is as yet, comparable to the
size of some of natural flux cycles. But the problem is that
mankind’s production of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is
ever-growing, while the natural fluxes remain cyclic and occur in relatively fixed
and predictable sequences as dictated by natural
processes. Our atmospheric pollution is upsetting these natural balances,
and our instruments and computers have documented this reality. Those who
have seen Al Gore’s The Inconvenient Truth know that he had to
use a power lift to get to the top of the CO2 curve on the
screen. Nature is screaming at us, calling for universal action.
Fortunately, the vast majority of scientists and a majority
of our people on this planet are listening... and HEARING NATURE'S CALL.
It is fortunate too that the 2008 Mass balance team has energy and
shelter as they return from digging a ten foot deep test pit on the
Demorest Glacier. The
sodden clouds have once again surrounded our home base at Camp Nine. Five test pit diggers... wet, cold and hungry... have come to
this 9’ by 12’ two-story plywood and sheet metal hut for comfort, shelter, rest and food. The camp fuel powering our faithful
two-burner stove
has canned beef stew and macaroni on one burner and hot water for tea on
the other. These things are not what put the smiles on their faces,
although they certainly help. Our smiles, energy and laughter come from
spirit and courage inspired by ACTION. This effervescent
spirit is the greatest source for the energies required to complete this vital GW research effort. If only we could tap this human
resource worldwide,
we could put the brakes on the mess called the energy crisis. Despite
those who have reservations, or are in denial... we can! But only through
continued and globally-applied education, will ACTION set us on a path towards
real solutions.
The search for this path forward dominated our group
discussions at Camp 10 a few days ago. Solutions are
not easily found and they are fraught with controversy. Since we have been
living in isolation from TV, radio and newspapers it was only through the
old-fashioned way that news traveled concerning Al Gore’s new and
bold plans. The helicopter pilot who brought us the four barrels of
gas told us. Al Gore has the courage and is taking ACTION like no other
human. We must, as he suggests, eliminate coal as a source of electricity in the US
within the next in ten years. Another idea which came to our group mind was population growth.
The fact that this growth has never diminished, led us to believe that population growth and its
consequences and stresses on mother earth will continue. The most we can
do is to explore realistic ways to deal with it. Global education and a
united front may be our best hope. We must not put this “on the back burner.”
More immediate problems like fossil-fuel dependence and "peak oil" must be dealt with immediately.
We have the ability, technology and motivation to develop all types
of renewable energy resources. One advantage of the recent dramatic
escalation in the price of energy, especially oil, is that now for the
first time these alternative energy resources are truly cost effective.
Solar, wind, geothermal, wave and even nuclear sources must all be
utilized in order to achieve the vision and hopes for renewed sources of energy. All of these energy sources have their own disadvantages and
environmental challenges. However, our group has mostly agreed that we
must no longer quibble and waste valuable time discussing and studying
these matters. We must proceed with an Apollo-like program, in the words
of Vice President Al Gore, to "get them online as fast as possible" and
possibly within his ten-year goal.
Conservation, we all agree, is a fantastic and under-utilized resource. Conservation and increased supply from green,
carbon free sources are integral parts of a
solution for our future. Higher energy costs
mean that conservation is
even more sensible than in the past. Mr. Gore is right, we need
to focus our efforts on the largest sources of CO2, which are
the energy sectors of transportation and electric power production. Clean
coal combustion and carbon sequestration are laudable goals, but they require
more immediate implementation. Perhaps the vocal NASA
scientist James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies, is right when he says that we cannot solve GW unless we
immediately ban the future construction of coal-fired power plants. This
ban could only end when clean coal combustion and carbon sequestration are
capable of going online. The implementation of nuclear generation, which
now produces 20% of our electricity in America, is inevitable. Growth in
the nuclear sector is ongoing globally, and even here in the USA. Nuclear plants
are large centralized sources of electricity which
can replace coal-fired plants one for one. Nuclear plants produce
no carbon emissions whatsoever, make them particularly attractive. Public education
about recent advances in
reactor design and safety of operation will be essential. New proliferation resistant designs and
effective nuclear waste management will mitigate public concerns about
this
vital energy source. Some inventors in Seattle,
sponsored in part by Microsoft, have recently found that a nuclear reactor
can be powered by nuclear waste!
All new green energy sources must be put in place quickly
as we overcome individual problems. New energy transportation systems
will be required – pipelines carrying hydrogen and natural gas,
electrical transmission lines and the like. In creating new energy
movement corridors, we cannot “bite our own tail” by forgetting about
environmental concerns. They must be minimized while realizing that they
cannot and will not be completely eliminated. Only doing nothing, which we
have done for so long, will eliminate them. But doing nothing will certainly lead to global disaster.
The pessimists within our
group came out when the subject of lifestyle change was raised. One
participant stated that our lifestyles must change. A change towards
simpler, less convenient, less consumptive and generally a less
ostentatious lifestyles
and standards of living. I replied, being the eternal optimist, that I feel
it is possible to achieve equality in lifestyle worldwide in spite of the
current crisis. History has shown that we have never gone backwards, except in times of war and economic disaster. In the long run, history will never reverse itself. It won’t happen because we will not let it happen. No
one seemed to agree. We voted and I lost by a significant margin. Will the
pessimists win or can we meet our challenge through global ACTION? Only
father time knows.
Well, it is time to leave
lovely Camp Nine once more. Like the swallows migration to Capistrano, we come here
once a year to do our critically important work. Last night the
clouds came back in and the visibility was down to the usual ten feet. JIRPer’s call it “living inside the ping pong ball.” This is an apt
name. Then, in the brief night, the stars came out
and sunrise broke. I was amazed at the sight of the rising sun slightly
east of north. When morning came, out came our
123 peaks on the horizon. This glorious intersection of light and ice energized and renewed us for the next
day’s task.
Now for one last cup of
soup before I catch up with the other five mass-balancers
who are skiing up-glacier to their next destination at Camp 18. They are now
mere dots on the distant white sheet of snow called the Mathes Glacier. Oh
NO, our trusty 2 burner stove has just run out of fuel and the pot is
still full of snow to be melted for soup! The two gallons of fuel we
brought to Camp Nine has run out. There must be more fuel
around somewhere. I need it for comfort and sustenance. Should I search for the last emergency supply, or should I save the last bit of fossil fuel for future use? I
decide to disregard my concerns about the future and sure enough, there is another gallon under the
bunk in an old and filthy trunk. What a blessing this last 150 million
joules of energy will be.
Should I use it now or
should I save this last drop for the future? Oh heck, I wanted my
soup so I refueled the stove and enjoyed soup along with the last
of the tuna on a piece of Pilot bread. Was this fuel shortage at Camp Nine
a coincidence or another lesson in life to be learned on the icefield?
These are
lessons that each JIRP participant is morally required to
carry to tell the rest of the world. I justified my decision, knowing that the helicopter will bring more fuel. I heard so on my radio in a call from Camp 8 to Camp 18.
But where is the Earth’s
helicopter? Can we create it by our united ACTION?
Only time will tell. Here on the Juneau Icefield we endure hardship. We get cold, wet, hungry,
tired and then the next day we are in the Ping Pong Ball again. As
I write this closing paragraph, the Ping Pong Ball has
descended on Camp Nine. Oh well, I have a snow machine full of fossil fuel
and a
GPS
. As a result of the tremendous stress, hardship and backbreaking work,
we JIRPers sometimes feel a bit of despair every now and again.
But then you
hear someone say-
“I’m sick and tired of
this – I am never coming back”. And then after a slight pause they say
– “Until next year!”
The call of the Juneau Icefield, the camaraderie of our new-found, life-long friends and the
vital importance of our research will bring us back. So goodbye Camp Nine
for one more year. I look forward to comfort and nourishment again in 2009.
Off into the Ping Pong Ball again.
Written August 4,5,6 2008
by William A. (TOBY) DITTRICH 3301 G Street Vancouver, Wa 98663
Upon completing this essay in digital form on August 15,2008- Camp
Nine was 30oF snowing with gusts of wind to 80
MPH
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